ASML can't build chip machines fast enough through 2028

What happened: ASML, the only company making the machines behind top AI chips, says it can't build enough of them through 2028. Quarterly sales hit a record €11.7 billion, up 55% from last year, and profit more than doubled. It raised its yearly forecast for the third time. Some customers want to reserve machines for 2029 and 2030. Shares rose more than 3% in Amsterdam.
The claim: ASML says even a planned 30% boost in output won't cover AI demand.
Austin's take: Lithography machines are the wonder machines of the moment. Chip designers like Microsoft, Nvidia and OpenAI send designs mainly to TSMC, which builds on ASML machines. He thinks we're compute constrained across the board, and speculates OpenAI may be holding back its fast mode because it needs more chips than it has.
Why it matters: If the only maker of these machines is sold out for years, AI chip shortages and high compute costs aren't going away soon, and ASML gains pricing power.
What to do: Plan for AI compute to stay pricey and occasionally rationed. If you're curious, Austin recommends reading up on how lithography and chipmaking actually work.
Not confirmed yet: Austin's point about OpenAI's fast mode is his own guess; he says it may simply have been missing from his app. OpenAI compute struggles were described as rumors.

The Loop